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4A-HEALTHY-BMI's Photo 4A-HEALTHY-BMI Posts: 6,110
2/24/15 11:15 P

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I've needed to use DietBet peroidically to help me push back against regains.

As a geeky numbers person I've been curious about the relative advantages of low-stakes vs moderate vs high-stakes games on there. I've read theories online that the returns are better for low-stakes games ($10-$15) because the participants aren't as invested and are more likely to drop out. The trick, it would seem, is to put enough $$ in to keep myself invested, while joining dietbets where others are less invested than I am.

So I crunched the numbers for 70 recent dietbets to see if that is true.

Ante Earnings Players
$10.00 $11.48 398
$14.00 $4.98 13
$15.00 $20.44 165
$20.00 $24.13 183
$25.00 $14.77 6493
$28.00 $8.23 67
$30.00 $11.66 19435
$35.00 $19.24 1212
$40.00 $8.51 49
$50.00 $28.52 48
$100.00 $8.56 429
$150.00 $14.35 60

I've plotted the average earnings (payout minus original ante) versus ante.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g_CR
x0
8Ws34zJecTNDEz42aQqzqHCn8HPRgdtyg9dGR>E/pubchart?oid=406321019&format=inte
ractive

The size of the circle reflects the number of players sampled (bigger circle, more players, more reliable average). You can hover over the circles to see the actual numbers.

So in a $10 dietbet you're likely to get about $11.48 plus your original ante of $10, while in a $25 dietbet you're likely to get about $14.77 plus your original ante of $20. It is noticeable that just about the lowest amount you're likely to get back is from a high-stakes $100 game. Those high stakes games have a very high percentage of winners (around 75%).

The most I observed anyone earning was $145 in a $20 game where 1 person out of 11 lost the 4%. This is very rare. At the other end of the spectrum I've observed two $50 dietbets where 9 of the 12 players lost the 4% and just got their original $$ back because there was nothing left after Dietbet took their cut.

So, given that you're allowed to join up to three games simultaneously, what's the best strategy for winning $$, assuming you're definitely going to get the 4% off in a month?

Given sample sizes, it looks like the $20 dietbets give a pretty good average payout ($24.13). So if you can afford to let them hold onto $60 for a month, you can likely get back about $72.38 more than your original ante.

The statistics show that people who put in more $$ tend to have a higher likelihood of winning. So if all you need is motivation and you can safely lose the 4% you're more likely to stick with it, the more $$ you invest.

If you really don't want to risk $60, then for $30 you could join three $10 dietbets and likely get back about $34.45 more than you put in.

There are some other patterns I've observed. Very large games tend to have the most reliable payouts because you're averaging over lots of people. Small games are less predictable. I would personally not want to join a game that has fewer than 20 people. Celebrity-hosted games tend to have more dropouts because they draw people who aren't accustomed to losing weight and are just getting the hang of it. Some medical or regional groups tend to have lower percentages of winners, so it can be worth looking for games sponsored by those groups or organizations. Figure out which ones by browsing the recent completed games.

All of this assumes you're definitely going to get off the 4%. There are a lot of strategies important to consider here, too.

1-2% of your body weight per week is just about the fastest an average person can expect to lose weight. As you get closer to your goal, the weight will likely come off slower than that. It will also come off slower if you've already been watching what you eat.

I did two dietbets back-to-back in the past, and it nearly backfired. The first one was fine because I was coming off a period of regain and the weight was relatively easy to remove. (The challenge in that one for me was keeping it off the whole month - I got kind of bored after my rapid success in the first two weeks, and only the thought of strangers getting my $$ stopped me from rebelling and overeating)

The second dietbet nearly did me in, because after losing almost 8% of my bodyweight in one month, my body needed to stabilize, and it was very difficult to remove an additional 4% the following month. I also noticed that I was tempted to engage in water games and other ways to play with scale fluctuations, that are not healthy.

So I would not recommend doing back-to-back diet bets unless you are well over 200 lbs, because it is just too difficult to lose that much weight consistently, month after month.

Instead I'd recommend doing a dietbet as a reboot, and then spend a month maintaining. After that month if you still want to get more weight off, do another dietbet. I think it's probably better thought of as a tool to facilitate behavioral habituation for a month than as a end in itself. You can think of it as additional motivation to keep up your Spark streaks for a month.

If you really want a return on your $$, do three simulataneous dietbets as a reboot, and then take a month to stabilize before doing more of them.

Just my 2 cents.



Edited by: 4A-HEALTHY-BMI at: 2/25/2015 (00:27)
Never, ever, EVER give up!

From BMI 53 (336 lbs) to under 30. Now aiming for less than 20% body fat.

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Goal 155 +/- 3%


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DAVIS_6311's Photo DAVIS_6311 Posts: 266
12/15/14 6:40 A

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I've only played one at a time so far but next month I plan on doing at least two depending on how much I win from this one I am currently in. Good luck! It's certainly been an amazing motivation for me!

 current weight: 224.0 
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HEATHERSMITHFIT's Photo HEATHERSMITHFIT SparkPoints: (0)
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Posts: 171
12/13/14 9:12 A

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I'm doing my first bet right now. But when I win this one, I plan to use my winnings to enter 2 or 3 bets in January. My overall plan is to keep using winnings to enter new bets until I reach my goal weight :)

~Heather


 current weight: 177.4 
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JAMIELOGICAL's Photo JAMIELOGICAL SparkPoints: (0)
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10/7/13 9:58 P

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Good luck! I've been reinvesting all along and now I have a big enough cushion in my account that even if I lose an entire round of Bets, I'll have enough money to play another full round.

 current weight: 160.4 
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ANIFLO's Photo ANIFLO Posts: 63
10/7/13 1:36 P

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I have reinvested my winnings from my September bet into an October bet. Wish me luck!

"If it is to be, it is up to me."


 current weight: 176.2 
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JAMIELOGICAL's Photo JAMIELOGICAL SparkPoints: (0)
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9/17/13 1:17 P

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Keep in mind that you can do up to three DietBets at a time, so if you want to increase the stakes, you can join a couple more. I did two on my first round, three on my second round, five on my third round (cap used to be five), and three on this latest round. I plan to do three next round as well.

 current weight: 160.4 
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JTAMSYN's Photo JTAMSYN SparkPoints: (54,650)
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9/17/13 12:26 P

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Thanks for sharing. I will be starting my first one next week so I don't have any strategies yet. I will keep your tips in mind though! Great job on your winnings/losses!

 current weight: 146.1 
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JAMIELOGICAL's Photo JAMIELOGICAL SparkPoints: (0)
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6/5/13 2:05 P

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I figured I'd start a thread where people can post their DietBet strategies for maximizing their weight loss and winnings.

My current strategy as far as signing up for DietBets is to take about a week off between bets to just give myself a little breather, then reinvest most of my winnings intro new bets. I've decided to always leave at least $25 in my account, just in case I lose. That way I'll have enough money to at least do one bet the next round and give myself a chance to win back any money I lose.

I started with my first two Bets right at the end of April/beginning of May and won both bets. After those two bets I had a balance of about $120, so I joined two $35 bets and one $25 bet for June. That left me with $25 to spend in July, just in case something goes horribly wrong with my June bets.

 current weight: 160.4 
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